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|Title:||Solar Power Generation Forecasting Using Ensemble Approach Based on Deep Learning and Statistical Methods.||Authors:||Mariam AlKandari||Supervisor:||Prof. Imtiaz Ahmad||Degree Awarded:||M.Sc. Degree in: Computer Engineering||Keywords:||Solar Power Forecasting,Machine Learning,Statistical Methods,Renewable Energy,Photo voltaic||Issue Date:||2019||Publisher:||Kuwait university - college of graduate studies||Abstract:||Solar power forecasting will have a signiﬁcant impact on the future of large-scale renewable energy plants. Accurate solar forecasting will assist grid operators to obtain better management of the power grid and minimize the operational costs of generating electrical energy from burning fossil fuel, a natural energy source. Predicting solar photovoltaic power usage depends heavily on climate conditions, which ﬂuctuate over time. To assist with this, machine learningis a viable solution to learn from historical weather data to predict the future power generation. Moreover, statistical methods proved to provide better accuracy of prediction in various aspects. In this research, we propose a hybrid model (MLSHM) that combines machine-learning methods with statistical methods for more accurate and precise prediction of future solar power generation from renewable energy plants. In addition, we developed a new machine-learning model, Auto-GRU, that predicts the solar PV power by learning from encoded historical weather data. To enhance and boost the accuracy of the proposed MLSHM, we employ two diversity techniques, i.e. structural diversity which combines two differently structured models (machine-learning models and a statistical model), and data diversity by dividing the training set among machine learning models. To combine the prediction of the ensemble members in the proposed MLSHM, we exploit four different combining methods: simple averaging approach, weighted averaging using linear approach, weighted averaging using non-linear approach, and combination through variance using inverse approach. The proposed hybrid model was validated on two real-time series datasets, Shagaya in Kuwait and Cocoa in the USA. The experiments show that the proposed hybrid model, using all the combination methods, achieved considerably higher accuracy compared to the prediction of the traditional individual models such as LSTM, GRU, Auto-LSTM and theta model. The results demonstrated that a hybrid model combining machine-learning methods with statistical methods outperformed a hybrid model that only combinesmachine-learningmodelswithoutstatisticalmethods.||URI:||http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1088|
|Appears in Programs:||0612 Computer Engineering|
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checked on Sep 26, 2020
checked on Sep 26, 2020
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