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Title: The Migrant Effect on Trade Across Countries of Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Authors: Rana nader aljallal رنا الجلال 
Supervisor: Dr. Nayef Al-Shammari
Keywords: Trade وCountries of Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher:  Kuwait university - college of graduate studies
Abstract: The present text aims to clarify the impact of migrant flows on a host country’s trade direction. The world migrant population increased by more than 91 million since 1990. The MENA region specifically hosts a vast number of migrants that make up a significant population percentage. In the GCC alone, four countries have a migrant population base that is more than half the total population. It is important to comprehend the implication migrants have on an economy, and specifically trade, to understand how to benefit and become more efficient in aiming for economic growth. The migrant effect is estimated using “Total Trade”, “Exports”, and “Imports”, according to the gravity model approach. The effect is tested using data for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, and the sample includes eighteen countries from 1990 to 2015 at five year intervals . The gravity model is estimated using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator followed by Silva and Tenreyro (2006). Eliminates issues dealing with zero trade observations by forgoing the traditional ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator and the log-log model. The following independent variables are deemed statistically significant based upon the results; “Migrant Levels”, “GDP home country”, “GDP partnering country”, “Exchange Rate”, “Distance”, “Language”, and “Border”. The Random Effect Poisson regression varied slightly in finding “Language” and “Border” to be statistically insignificant. Lastly, “Migrant Levels”, “GDP Home country”, “GDP partnering country” and “Border” positively affect trade, while “Exchange Rate”, “Distance”, and “Language” negatively affect trade direction. The findings confirm higher migrant levels lead to higher trade relations between MENA countries and migrant countries. There are three migrant policy recommendations that can be drawn from the findings of this thesis. First, the need to introduce permanent citizenships for migrants which may require capital investments into the local markets. The second is to set a migrant quota for partnering country based on local economy needs. The third recommendation is prioritizing the migration of highly skilled workers.
Appears in Programs:1030 Economics

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